Wednesday, August 21, 2019
 

Monthly GDP: January – February 2019

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Still a weak start of the year

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Recent economic indicators support an upward revision of nowcasting estimates. The dynamic of economic activity should be less subdued than previously expected, with monthly real GDP at -0,01% m/m in February (-0,23% yoy).According to Istat final print for 4Q2018, real GDP growth was revised up by 0.1pp to -0.1% q/q. The contraction was primarily due to inventories, while core domestic demand returned to support growth after contributing negatively in Q3 (private consumption expanded 0.1% q/q and investments advanced 0.3% q/q after contracting 1.3% in Q3). Net exports provided a positive contribution to growth (0.2pp).
Industrial production printed a strong 1.7% m/m increase in January, significantly above consensus, following a decline of 0.7% m/m in December. The expansion was underpinned by recovering manufacturing output (+1.2% m/m) and buoyant energy production (+7.2% m/m). Industrial activity is expected to dip again in February, affected by a drop in the energy component. However, soft indicators offer positive signs: manifacturing PMI stabilised, signalling an improvement in foreign orders, while service PMI turned expansionary at 50.4.

Data and comment

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Methodological note

 

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