Monday, August 10, 2020

Monthly GDP: January – February 2019


Still a weak start of the year


Recent economic indicators support an upward revision of nowcasting estimates. The dynamic of economic activity should be less subdued than previously expected, with monthly real GDP at -0,01% m/m in February (-0,23% yoy).According to Istat final print for 4Q2018, real GDP growth was revised up by 0.1pp to -0.1% q/q. The contraction was primarily due to inventories, while core domestic demand returned to support growth after contributing negatively in Q3 (private consumption expanded 0.1% q/q and investments advanced 0.3% q/q after contracting 1.3% in Q3). Net exports provided a positive contribution to growth (0.2pp).
Industrial production printed a strong 1.7% m/m increase in January, significantly above consensus, following a decline of 0.7% m/m in December. The expansion was underpinned by recovering manufacturing output (+1.2% m/m) and buoyant energy production (+7.2% m/m). Industrial activity is expected to dip again in February, affected by a drop in the energy component. However, soft indicators offer positive signs: manifacturing PMI stabilised, signalling an improvement in foreign orders, while service PMI turned expansionary at 50.4.

Data and comment

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Methodological note


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