Friday, January 17, 2020
 

Monthly GDP: November 2019

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Some stabilization in sight despite weakness
in industry

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According to Istat final print for 3Q19, economic activity continued to grow modestly (0.1%q/q), in line with the path of the previous four quarters. The q-o-q growth was supported by the positive e contribution of private consumption and inventories (following a marked destocking process in 1H2019), while the one of investment was nil; net exports substracted 0.4 points to growth. On the supplyside, the rise of the value added in services and construction sectors was partially offset by a decrease in industry and agricolture.
The monthly estimate of real GDP remains broadly stable in November (0.02%m/m). More recent information out lines a weakness picture for the industry sector, as pointed out by the second in a row decrease of the industrial production index (-0.3%m/minOctober). The rise in non-durable goods production was not strong enough to conterbalance the reduction of instrumental goods and energy.
For the coming months, surveys highlight the absence of growth momentum but simultaneously point at overall resilience. Manufacturing PMI is still in contraction area (47.6 in November), while expansion in services slows down (at 50.4).


Data and comment

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Methodological note

 

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