Wednesday, July 15, 2020

Monthly GDP: February 2020


Flat GDP in February as Coronavirus hit Italy


The monthly estimate of the real GDP points to broadly stable economic activity in February (0.01% m/m, -0.21% y/y),interrupting the contractionary phase of the previous months. However, this estimate does not take into account the effects by theCovid-19, because they are not yet captured on February data but should show up in those related to March.
At the beginning of the year hard data show a marked rebound of the industrial production (3,7% m/m) which more than offsetsthe severe decline recorded in december 2019. The same dynamic has been observed among theother main European economies.The rebound was widespread to all sectors, with a remarkable increase in capital goods (4,1%) and intermediate goods (3,3%)and a less intense increase in consumption goods (2,6%) and energy (1,3%).
Surveys do not point out promising signs: the PMI index for the manifacturing sector as well as the expectations in productionprovided by ISTAT point to a slight decline in production in the forthcoming month. As for the service sector, the PMI indexstrenghtened its expansion in February (a 52,1) but other soft indicators, such as car registrations, resulted less encouraging.

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