Thursday, April 2, 2020
 

Monthly GDP: January 2020

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Nil growth in January amid manufacturing weakness and global uncertainty

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According to the preliminary estimate issued by ISTAT for 4T2019, GDP contracted by 0.34 % t/t as a result of a decline ofmanufacturing and agriculture value added aganist a substantial stagnation in services. Industry’s difficulties are confirmed bythe negative industrial production figures of December, with the index decreasing by 2.7 % m/m due to a decline inproduction spread to all sectors.
Looking ahead, the weakness of the economic activity at the end of last year leads to a downward revision of the forecast ofmonthly real GDP, which now projects a decrease of 0.02 % m/m in January (-0.26 % y/y).
Nevertheless, preliminary surveys for January show signs of slight improvement in economic dynamics. In particular, both thePMI index and ISTAT survey on production expectations signal a slight recovery for the manufacturing sector and also thelatest indicators for services point to a consolidation of growth. However, surveys do not yet capture the impact on theexpectations of businesses and consumers of the emergency connected to the occurrence of the coronavirus.

Data and comment

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Methodological note

 

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