Tuesday, June 2, 2020
 

Monthly GDP: March 2020

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Early signs of the impact of Covid on the economy

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Nowcastingestimatesbegintoincorporatetheimpactofepidemiccrisisassoftindicatorsfallmarkedly.Projectionsareexpectedto deteriorate further with the worsening of hard data. TheupdatedmonthlyestimateoftherealGDPpointstoareductionoftheeconomicactivityinMarch(-0.16%m/m,-0.61%y/y), starting to reflect the impact of the lockdown aimed at containing the spread of the virus. TheFebruarydataofindustrialproductionshowedadecreaseoftheproductionlevels(-1.2%m/m),lowerthanexpectations,whichpointedtoamoreseverecontraction.Consumptiongoodsandintermediategoodsfellby0.9%and1.1%respectively,capital goods displayed a nul growth, while the energy sector recorded an increase (2.7% m/m). Industrialproductiondatayetdonotfullytakeintoaccounttheeffectsofthelockdown,startedthe23Februaryandlimitedonlyto a part of Italy. Onthecontrary,thesurveysinMarchpointtoabigdropasaconseguenceoflockdown.ThemanifacturingPMIindexreachedan11-yearlow(at40.3pointsfrom48.7inFebruary)andISTATsurveysshowasharpreductioninbusinessconfidenceinMarch(89.5),thelowestlevelsince2013.Asfortheservicesector,therelativePMIindexpointstoahistoricalminimum(at17.4), losing 34.7 points, and other indicators, such as new car registrations, reveal a huge fall.

Data and comment

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Methodological note

 

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