La caduta della produttività
di Luigi Paganetto
IMF ha pubblicato uno studio sulla Slowing Global Productivity (2017), in cui si sostiene che circa il 40% della bassa crescita dei paesi avanzati è legata alla riduzione della produttività totale che, a sua volta, risente molto dell’insufficiente innovazione. IMF suggerisce, come rimedio, policy in cui investimenti ed innovazione hanno un ruolo preminente.
Figura 1: Cyclically Adjusted Total Factor Productivity Growth, 1990-2014 (Annual average, percent)
Fonte: Penn World Table 9.0; EU KLEMS and World KLEMS data; Furceri, Çelik, and Schnucker (2016); and IMF staff calculations.
Nel caso dell’eurozona e dei paesi dell’area mediterranea in particolare la bassa crescita della produttività è ancor più pronunciata
Figura 2: TFP growth in the euro area, 1970-2017 and projections for 2018-2027 (Index: 1970=100)
Fonte: 1970-2016 based on the November 2017 release of the Conference Board Total Economy
In Italia la produttività totale ha avuto un andamento sostanzialmente piatto dalla metà degli anni ’90, come emerge dai dati Istat riportati nel grafico che segue:
Figura 3: Produttività totale dei fattori, valore aggiunto e input produttivi. Totale economia
(Anni 1995-2017, indici base 2010=100)
Fonte: ISTAT, Statistiche report, Anni 1995-2017, Misure di produttività, 6 novembre 2018
Nota: Le attività di locazione dei beni immobili, di famiglie e convivenze, delle organizzazioni e organismi internazionali e tutte le attività economiche che fanno capo al settore istituzionale delle Amministrazioni Pubbliche sono escluse dal campo di osservazione.
Anche se la caduta del tasso di crescita della produttività ha aspetti peculiari per il nostro Paese, la sua interpretazione si inserisce in un quadro in cui il cambiamento indotto dalle nuove tecnologie (ICT) non ha mantenuto le promesse che avevano fatto ritenere che esse sarebbero state capaci di esercitare un’ influenza decisiva sulla crescita delle economie avanzate. Il dibattito sul perchè le aspettative non siano state realizzate oscilla tra la tesi di chi come Gordon (2016) ritiene che si tratti di un fenomeno permanente collegato al venir meno della stagione delle grandi invenzioni e chi ritiene si tratti di un fenomeno temporaneo destinato ad essere superato nel momento in cui gli avanzamenti nell’uso dell’intelligenza artificiale o di altri cambiamenti tecnologici apriranno nuove prospettive per la crescita della produttività (Brynjolfsson and McAfee 2014). C’è anche chi, come Haskel (2017), ritiene che la recente crescita (vedi tabella seguente) della “economia intangibile” potrebbe giocare un ruolo importante per la crescita della produttività.
Figura 4: Quote di investimento tangibile e intangibile del PIL
Fonte: J. Haskel, S. Westlake, Productivity and secular stagnation in the intangible economy, Voxeu.org, 31 maggio 2018
Haskel ritiene sulla base delle misure che ha condotto sulle proprietà degli investimenti in “intangibles” mostrano che la loro efficacia sarà evidente al momento in cui i Governi metteranno in essere le istutzioni necessarie a far funzionare un’ economia “intangibile”.
È chiaro che molte altre sono le circostanze che influenzano la produttività a cominciare dal funzionamento e la struttura dei mercati e delle Istituzioni, per continuare con l’andamento del ciclo, dagli andamenti demografici, dai caratteri del mercato del lavoro e dalle sue riforme, dall’abbondanza o insufficienza degli skills disponibili, per finire con la maggiore o minore integrazione dei mercati e degli scambi internazionali (IMF 2016).
Il punto centrale è che, mentre si discutono sofisticate alchimie di Governance come quelle proposte dai 7+7 economisti franco-tedeschi, non si affronta l’insoddisfacente andamento della TFP e del Pil nell’area dell’eurozona.
Una delle principali ragioni è stata l’incapacità di provvedere ad una politica fiscale per l’insieme dei paesi dell’area dell’euro. Senza un’adeguata politica fiscale in comune le recessioni risultano più profonde e la disoccupazione maggiore. Un altro elemento di fragilità dell’area euro è la forte divergenza e la lentezza degli aggiustamenti nell’andamento di prezzi e salari, che lascia i paesi più deboli esposti alla deflazione.
Ciò si traduce per la Germania in un eccesso di avanzo commerciale e bassi investimenti, per l’Italia in una bassa crescita della produttività totale.
Ma quello che conta di più è la mancanza di un bilancio comune, che consentirebbe di disporre delle risorse necessarie all’offerta di quei «beni pubblici», a cominciare da investimenti produttivi in comune, che molto potrebbero contribuire a produttività e crescita. Senza dimenticare gli investimenti su difesa e sicurezza e gestione dell’immigrazione, di cui i cittadini europei sentono sempre più la mancanza. Occorre affrontare l’insoddisfazione dei cittadini europei sviluppando, nell’ambito dei beni pubblici, anche il pilastro dei diritti sociali, che solo di recente ha ricevuto la necessaria attenzione. Esso tanto più potrà procedere quanto più si riuscirà ad aumentare il basso tasso di crescita dell’area dell’euro, caratterizzata da molti anni dall’insoddisfacente andamento della produttività totale.
L’Osservatorio su Produttività e Benessere della Fondazione Economia Tor Vergata, intende monitorare i contributi su tutti questi diversi aspetti delle determinanti della produttività, guardando anche all’altro lato della medaglia, rappresentato da quanto la produttività sia capace di coniugarsi con il benessere delle collettività.
_____________
Luigi Paganetto
Presidente Fondazione Economia Tor Vergata
Tags: anaemic europe, economia europea, economia italiana, gruppo dei 20, Luigi Paganetto, Osservatorio Produttività e Benessere
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