Tuesday, July 17, 2018
 

Monthly GDP: April 2018

luglio 5th, 2018 by admin in Italian Economics

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The “soft patch” continued in April

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Economic growth is estimated to have remained broadly unchanged in April, at -0.03% m/m and +1.19% yoy. Industrial production dropped 1.2% m/m in April, erasing last month’s rise (+1.2% m/m) and falling back to its February level. Results were negative across the board barring investment goods, that grew by 0.7% m/m for the second month in a row. Energy printed the worst contraction (-4.8%), followed by consumption goods (-1.3%) and intermediate goods (-1.1%). The decline could have been influenced by the bank holidays at the end of the month and the index will probably rebound in May.
Business confidence and manifactury PMI moderated further,while services’ sentiment remained resilient in May.

Data and comment

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Monthly GDP: March 2018

maggio 26th, 2018 by admin in Italian Economics

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GDP growth stabilizes at 0,3% q/q as industrial production rebounds in March

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According to the first official GDP flash estimate t+30 provided by Istat, real GDP growth stabilized at 0.3% q/q in 1Q2018, supported by domestic demand, while net export brought a negative contribution. Industrial production rebounded by 1.2% m/m in March, ending a two-month contraction cycle. The expansion was broad-based and mainly driven by manufacturing sector with the positive contribution of all components: consumption goods (+2.5%), intermediate goods (0.7%), instrumental godds (0.8%) and energy (1.3%). Despite the softness of the latest business surveys, economic activity is expected to stabilize in the following months.
Consistent with this scenario, the revised estimate for real monthly GDP points to a solid growth of 0.17% m/m in March (+1.22% yoy).

Data and comment

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Monthly GDP: February 2018

aprile 19th, 2018 by admin in Italian Economics

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A softer than expected start to the year

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After a weak print of -1.9% m/m in January industrial production continued to slow down in February (0.5% m/m) above expectations. The moderation of economic activity, recorded also in other main European countries, is presumed to be mainly consequence of adverse weather conditions. Infact, the weakness was broad-based across subcomponents, with energy production (8.1% m/m) being the only exception. According to the latest PMI surveys, both manufacturing and services sector suffered a noticeable slowdown in growth during March, with both activity and new orders rising at the weaker rates. Despite this softness, both indicators remain close to their historical highs. The new estimate for monthly real GDP points to a flat m/m profile (0.01% m/m) in February and to an annual growth of +1.35% yoy.

Data and comment

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27 Mar2018

Tor Vergata Group of 20 – March 27, 2018

The meeting of Group of 20 “Revitalizing Anaemic Europe” took place on March 27th in Rome at the SNA – National School of Administration, and the topics were:

“Sustainable Development: circular economy, electric mobility, water,
waste and land protection”

To the opening by Luigi Paganetto, President of Tor Vergata University Economics Foundation, are followed the speeches by  Francesco La Camera, General Director, Italian Ministy for the Environment and the Protection of Natural and Marine Resources; Tullio Fanelli, Vice General Director ENEA; Filomena Maggino, Sapienza University of Rome; Roberto Morabito, ENEA; e Alessandro Ortis, President of States General for Energy efficiency.

 

Monthly GDP: January 2018

marzo 30th, 2018 by admin in Italian Economics

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Trend remains positive despite a dip in January

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Industrial production came in below expectations in January, printing -1.9% m/m, from a very strong +2,1% m/m at the end of 2017. The drop was mainly due to the assessment of the working days during the Christmas holidays, but the index should rebound in February. With effect from this release, Istat revised the index’s methodology, and the new base year 2015 was adopted. The reassessment of the time series led to an upward revision of the annual index for 2016 and 2017 (respectively from 1,2% to 1,4% y/y and from 2.5% to 3.1% y/y), signalling upside risk to real GDP growth’s final estimation for both years. According to the latest PMI surveys, Italy’s manufacturing sector continued to expand at a strong pace during February, underpinned by further notable gains in output, orders and employment. Despite some softness pointed out by Istat business confidence index in March, indicators remain close to historical highs. The new estimate for monthly real GDP foresees an increase of 0.08% m/m in January and the annual growth rate is estimated at +1.54% yoy.

Data and comment

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27 Feb2018

Tor Vergata Group of 20 – February 27, 2018

The meeting of Group of 20 “Revitalizing Anaemic Europe” took place on February 27th in Rome at the SNA – National School of Administration, and the topics were:

“The proposals on Eurozone reforms and the document by the
French and German economists”

To the opening by Luigi Paganetto, President of Tor Vergata University Economics Foundation, are followed the speeches by Paolo Guerrieri, Sapienza University of Rome and College of Europe, Bruges; Marcello Minenna, London Graduate School of Mathematical Finance; Rocco Cangelosi, Italian Council of State; Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Société Génerale and Giuseppe Pennisi, CNEL

 

Monthly GDP: December 2017

febbraio 16th, 2018 by admin in Italian Economics

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Economic activity picked up at year-end

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According to the preliminary unadjusted estimate based on quarterly data, Italy’s real GDP rose by 1.4% in 2017 with respect to the previous year, the highest print since 2010. In the last quarter of 2017, the economy expanded by 0.3% q/q, a bit softer than previous quarter’s and market expectations. The breakdown of GDP growth will only be released on 2nd March, but according to the qualitative decomposition provided by ISTAT, the strongest drivers were domestic and external demand. The new estimate of monthly GDP foresees an increase of 0.22% m/m in December and the annual growth rate is estimated at 1.47% y/y, from 1.56% y/y in November. The Italian economy seems poised to accelerate further this year: industrial production expanded in December by posting strong growth of 1.6% m/m, following an increase in November of 0.2% m/m and coming significantly above consensus. Buoyant January business surveys suggest strong growth momentum is likely to continue in 1Q18: the composite PMIs increased to 59.0 (+2.5 points), the strongest reading since summer 2006..

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13 Feb2018

Tor Vergata Group of 20 – February 13, 2018

The meeting of Group of 20 “Revitalizing Anaemic Europe” took place on February 13th in Rome at the SNA – National School of Administration, and the topics were:

Taxation and the relationship between State and Citizens

To the opening by Luigi Paganetto, President of Tor Vergata University Economics Foundation, are followed the speeches by Nicola Rossi, Bruno Leoni Institute and University of Rome “Tor Vergata”; Franco Gallo, Emeritus Judge of the Italian Constitutional Court; Salvatore Biasco, Sapienza University of Rome; and Antonio Di Majo, University of “Roma Tre”

 

31 Jan2018

Tor Vergata Group of 20 – January 31, 2018

The meeting of Group of 20 “Revitalizing Anaemic Europe” took place on January 31th in Rome at the SNA – National School of Administration, and the topics were:

European Security and Defence policies” (1st part)

To the opening by Luigi Paganetto, President of Tor Vergata University Economics Foundation, are followed the reports by Ambassadors Maurizio Melani, Link Campus University and Alessandro Minuto Rizzo, President of Nato Defense College Foundation.

The european Social Pillar” (2nd part)

The following reports have been issued: Enrico Giovannini, ASviS and University of Rome “Tor Vergata”; Edoardo Reviglio, Chief Economist and Head of Research and Strategy and of International Relations at Cassa depositi e prestiti“; Paolo Reboani, Italian Ministry of Labour and Social Policy.

 

Monthly GDP: November 2017

gennaio 17th, 2018 by admin in Italian Economics

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Industrial production unespectedly soft, but Italy’s growth outlook remains solid

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Industrial production came in below expectations in November, remaining unchanged from the previous month after the expansion of 0.6% m/m printed in October. The positive contribution of the energy sector(+4.0% m/m) and intermediate goods (+0.1% m/m), infact, was offset by some moderation in consumption and instrumental goods (-0.7% and -0.3% m/m respectively). The softening of the economic activity associates with a modest slowdown of the short-term indicators, with the PMI index and business confidence that edged lower in December, albeit remaining comfortably within the expansion territory.
Consistent with this scenario, monthly real GDP is estimated to grow by 0.07% m/m and 1.56% yoy in November, suggesting that conditions remain positively oriented but that growth is unlikely to strengthen from 0.4% q/q recorded in 3Q17.

Data and comment

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Second Report of “Group of 20” – Revitalizing Anaemic Europe

aprile 3rd, 2017 by admin in International Economics / Publications


Unione Europea. 60 anni e un bivio

AA. VV. – Edited by Luigi Paganetto
Eurilink University Press – February 2017


Authors: Massimo Bagarani, Michele Bagella, Gloria Bartoli, Salvatore Biasco, Luigi Bonatti, Rocco Cangelosi, Marcello Clarich, Lorenzo Codogno, Giampaolo Galli, Franco Gallo, Adriano Giannola, Paolo Guerrieri, Martino Lo Cascio, Alfredo Macchiati, Rainer Masera, Maurizio Melani, Alessandro Minuto Rizzo, Roberto Pasca Di Magliano, Alberto Pera, Riccardo Perissich, Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo, Giovanni Tria, Salvatore Zecchini

This Report was realized by Tor Vergata Economic Foundation thanks to the contributions of distinguished academics and experts. The Report addresses the issue of widespread pessimism and confirms the validity of European Union and Euro choices, 60 years after the European Treaties. The ideas exposed in this Report come from an intense series of meetings where authors express a common belief, even if not in an unified vision. This belief arises from the need and the importance to keep in place and grow up the European effort, questioning how to “Revitalize”, more then leave, the European challenge.


European Union and global change. The need of Europe
Luigi Paganetto

Eurozone requires a recipe whereby a strong rate of investment, innovation and growth is pursued together with a reduction income inequality. A good recipe is a policy for inclusive growth because it could be the right remedy against the increasing Euroscepticism dominating EU scenario. Globalization looses, inequality, unemployment and low wages for medium skills depending from technological change To make inclusive growth working the creation of a fiscal space and a deal and the reduction of the excessive amount of public debt of Eurozone is needed. Euro is not the main cause of the low rate of growth of some European countries His incomplete construction explains its limits. Nevertheless it has been working facing the 2007 crisis by way of the European Stability Mechanism. The fiscal space needed by Eurozone could be created using a “bottom up” methodology, starting from some common problem as the expenses for controlling borders an immigration, security and defence needs, programs of investment in green technologies and innovation.

 

Globalization, inclusion and sustainability in a global century – G7 International Forum

maggio 2nd, 2017 by admin in International Economics












Globalization, Inclusion and Sustainability in a global century


G7 International Forum
Under the auspices of the Italian G7 Presidency


Rome, May 8 2017 – Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation
Rome, May 9 2017 – Link Campus University

The Forum focuses on three sets of issues:

  • Globalization, Protection and Protectionism
  • Growth, Trade, Inequality and Poverty
  • The Search for Sustainable and Inclusive Development

Download the Program

 

11 May2017

Tor Vergata Group of 20 – May 2017

The meeting of Group of 20 “Revitalizing Anaemic Europe” took place on May 11th and the topics were:

The 2017 Economic and Financial Document and the 2017 Economic Measures

To the opening by the President Luigi Paganetto are followed the speeches by Carlo Cottarelli, International Monetary Fund; Paolo Guerrieri, Sapienza University of Rome; Lorenzo Codogno, London School of Economics and Political Science; Riccardo Barbieri Hermitte, Italian Ministy of Economy and Finance.

It’s possible to download the slides:

 

XXIX Villa Mondragone International Economic Seminar

giugno 1st, 2017 by admin in International Economics

XXIX Villa Mondragone International Economic Seminar


Getting Globalization Right. Sustainability and Inclusive Growth in the post Brexit Age


Seminar, June 21 2017

University of Rome “Tor Vergata” – Villa Mondragone – Monte Porzio Catone

Round Table, June 22 2017
Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation – Sala Aldo Moro – Piazzale della Farnesina 1, Rome

Download the Program


 

24 Oct2017

European metropolises and the development: What role for Rome?

Group of 20 – Revitalizing Anaemic Europe


Workshop
European metropolises and the development: What role for Rome?


The workshop of Group of 20 “Revitalizing Anaemic Europe” took place on October 24th at the University of Rome “Tor Vergata” – Faculty of Economics.
To the opening by Giovanni Tria, Dean of Faculty of Economics, University of Rome “Tor Vergata” and Luigi Paganetto, President of Tor Vergata University Economics Foundation, are followed the speeches by Filippo Tortoriello, President of Unindustria; Beniamino QuintieriPresident of SACE; Lorenzo Tagliavanti, President of Rome Chamber of Commerce; Maurizio De Castri, Deputy rector of University of Rome “Tor Vergata”; Maria Prezioso, ESPON Contact Point Italia; Angelo AiraghiAnsaldo; Pierluigi Coppola, Engineering Department, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”; Alfredo Macchiati, LUISS “Guido Carli” University; Francesco Saverio Mennini, Research Director in Economic Evaluation, HTA and Corruption in Health – EEHTA, CEIS.


 

Monthly GDP: September 2017

novembre 28th, 2017 by admin in Italian Economics

GDP growth accelerates in Q3

After rising by 0,3% q/q in Q2, Istat preliminary estimate on GDP growth in Q3 shows an expansion of 0.5% q/q (+1.8% y/y), in line with consensus expectations. Together with 1Q17 it is the strongest quarterly reading since 4Q10 (1Q11 for the yoy change), i.e. since the government debt crisis. Growth is expected to remain resilient in the coming quarters as well, thanks to the positive trend of industrial activity and the encouraging signals coming from surveys and production indicators. Although industrial production contracted slightly more than consensus expectation in September (-1,3% m/m), it was consistent with a quarterly acceleration of 1.5% in Q3 (+1.2% in Q2). The drop was mainly due to the energy component (-6.3% m/m), capital goods (-2.0% m/m) and intermediate consumption (-3.0% m/m), all erasing their last month’s rise. Economic indicators in October point to the expansion of the industrial activity also in next months: PMI index jumped to a six-and-a-half-year high to 57.8 (+1.5 point). The rise was driven by a significant increase in new orders, supported by strong external demand, and in particular solid orders from Germany. Overall, the new GDP estimate for September points at flat m/m profile (+0.07% m/m) with year on year growth of +1.79%

Data and comment

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Monthly GDP: August 2017

settembre 18th, 2017 by admin in Italian Economics

Strong IP points to robust GDP growth in Q3

Industrial production in August recorded a sharp increase of 1.2% m/m, driven mainly by the ongoing strengthening of capital goods (+2.2% m/m) and intermediate consumption (+2.4% m/m) and by the robust result of the energy component (+4.6% m/m). On balance, although August data could be significantly affected by seasonal adjustments, the higher-than-expected print of business surveys and the encouraging signals from production indicators confirm the positive momentum in industrial activity and point to solid growth also in the next months. Consistent with this scenario, monthly real GDP is estimated to grow by 0.27% month-on-month and 1.73% year-on-year.

Data and comment

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Monthly GDP: May 2017

luglio 16th, 2017 by admin in Italian Economics

Industrial production strenghtens in Q2

Industrial production (IP) rose by 0,7% m/m in May, offsetting the slight decline recordered in April. The growth was broad-based and strongest in capital goods, which rebounded strongly at 2.3% m/m, while energy dropped -1% on the month. Manufacturing sentiment remained broadly stable at 55.2 in June, underpinned by buoyant foreing orders with positive effects on employment perspectives. With the Q2 manifacturing PMI average at 55.5, the highest in the last six years, PMIs point to a solid contribution of the industrial sector to GDP growth in the next months. The new GDP estimate for May prints a moderate m/m profile (+0.08% m/m) with year on year growth strenghtening at +1.4%.

Data and comment

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Monthly GDP: October 2017

dicembre 21st, 2017 by admin in Italian Economics

The Italian economy stays the course as the year comes to a close

After GDP growth for 3Q17 was revised marginally down to +0.4% qoq (from the first estimate of +0.5%), as it appeared the service sector might have grown less than expected. GDP was still up a robust 1.7% yoy, driven by exports (+5.3% yoy, which shows that Italian companies are now gaining market share around the world) and investment (+4.6% yoy). Industrial production returned to expansion at healthy pace in October (+0,5% m/m), after weakness seen in September: the increase was broad based across sectors, with the positive contribution of energy component (+1,7% m/m), intermediate goods (+1,0% m/m) and capital goods (+0,7% m/m). Therefore, the updated GDP estimate for October remains well oriented (+0,15% m/m) pointing to a robust growth of +1,84% on a year on year base, also in line with the most recent surveys confirming that the growth momentum should be sustained in Q4 too. November composite PMI, infact, surprised to the upside, rising to 56.0 (+2.0 points), a four month high, with the services sector that drove most of the rise, increasing to 54.7 (+2.6 points).

Data and comment

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7 Dec2017

Nation, Regions and Autonomies strengthened.
How to ensure Solidarity and Development

Group of 20 – Revitalizing Anaemic Europe


Workshop

Nation, Regions and Autonomies strengthened.
How to ensure Solidarity and Development


The workshop of Group of 20 “Revitalizing Anaemic Europe” took place on December 7th in Rome at the SNA – National School of Administration.
To the opening by Stefano Battini, President of SNA and Luigi Paganetto, President of Tor Vergata University Economics Foundation, are followed the speeches by Patrizio Bianchi, Emilia Romagna Region; Franco Gallo, Emeritus judge of the Italian Constitutional Court; Adriano Giannola, President of SVIMEZ; Mariano Bella, Confcommercio; Maria Ludovica Agrò, Director-General of Italian Agency for Territorial Cohesion; Vincenzo Scotti, Link Campus University; Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”.


 

23 Nov2017

Tor Vergata Group of 20 – November 2017

The meeting of Group of 20 “Revitalizing Anaemic Europe” took place on November 23rd in Rome at the SNA – National School of Administration, and the topics were:

The 2018 Budget law, debt and issues of the Italian economy

To the opening by the President Luigi Paganetto are followed the speeches by Riccardo Barbieri H., Chief Economist Department of the Treasury – Italian Economy and Finance Ministry; Gloria Bartoli, LUISS “Guido Carli” University; Gimpaolo Galli, Italian Congress of Deputies; Giuseppe Pennisi, CNEL; Giuseppe Pisauro, President of The Italian Parliamentary Budget Office.

It’s possible to download the slides:

undefined Manovra 2018, Debito e nodi dell’economia Italiana (italian version)
Luigi Paganetto – President of Tor Vergata University Economics Foundation

undefined Italy’s macroeconomic outlook
Riccardo Barbieri H. – Italian Department of the Treasury – MEF

 

11 Jan2018

Tor Vergata Group of 20 – January 11, 2018

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The meeting of Group of 20 “Revitalizing Anaemic Europe” took place on January 11th in Rome at the SNA – National School of Administration, and the topics were: “Welfare and Health“.
To the opening by Stefano Battini, President of SNA and Luigi Paganetto, President of Tor Vergata University Economics Foundation, are followed the speeches by Federico Spandonaro, President of CREA Sanità and Andrea Urbani, Director-General of health planning – Italian Ministry of Health.

 

20 Jul2017

Tor Vergata Group of 20 – July 2017

The meeting of Group of 20 “Revitalizing Anaemic Europe” took place on July 20th in Rome at the SNA – National School of Public Administration, and the topics were: “Europe is on the rise, a country limping. Competition, Banks, Industry“.
To the opening by Luigi Paganetto, President of Tor Vergata University Economics Foundation, are followed the speeches by Patrizio Bianchi, Emilia Romagna Region; Massimo Mucchetti, Senate of the Italian Republic; Alberto Pera, Gianni, Origoni, Grippo, Cappelli & Partners; Salvatore Zecchini, Steering Group – OCSE.

 

14 Sep2017

Tor Vergata Group of 20 – September 2017

The meeting of Group of 20 “Revitalizing Anaemic Europe” took place on September 14th, 2017 and the topic was:

The economic recovery in Italy: What policies?

To the opening by Luigi Paganetto followed the speeches by Stefano Battini, President of SNA; Enrico Giovannini, ASviS e University of Rome “Tor Vergata“; Giampaolo Galli, Italian Congress of Deputies; Giorgio La Malfa, Ugo La Malfa Foundation; Angelo AiraghiAnsaldo; Ernesto Auci Italian Congress of Deputies; Paolo Guerrieri, University of Rome “La Sapienza”  – College of Europe, Bruges; Giulio Prosperetti, Italian Constitutional Court.

 

8 Mar2017

Tor Vergata Group of 20 – March 2017

The meeting of Group of 20 “Revitalizing Anaemic Europe” took place on March 8th in Rome at the SNA – National School of Administration, and the topics were:

The Trump admnistration and the European Union in the new international framework”.

To the opening by Luigi Paganetto, President of Tor Vergata University Economics Foundation, are followed the speeches by Dominick Salvatore, Fordham University and Riccardo Barbieri, Italian Economic and Finance Ministry

 

17 Feb2017

Tor Vergata Group of 20 – February 2017

The meeting of Group of 20 “Revitalizing Anaemic Europe” took place on February 17th and the topics were:

Climatic Policies and sustainability

To the opening by Luigi Paganetto followed the speech by Francesco La Camera, Director for the Sustainable Development and the International Business of the Ministry of Environment.
La Camera refered to Paris Climate Change Conference, to the next G7 Environment, to G20 about Green Finance, and to the changes about this theme announced by Trump Administration.

It’s possible to download the slides here.

Italexit in Mediobanca Report, euro yes, euro no

Introduced by Luigi Paganetto, partecipated: Marcello Minenna, one of the report’s author and professor at London Graduate School of Mathematical Finance and Leonardo Becchetti, professor at University of Rome Tor Vergata.

The discussion demonstrated the position of “Group of 20″ that, even if expressing the need of a change of mind about european policies, highlighted the euro’s role and its importance.

 

19 Jan2017

Tor Vergata Group of 20 – January 19, 2017

The meeting of Group of 20 “Revitalizing Anaemic Europe” took place on January 19th and the topic was

Sustainable development, cohesion policies and South

To the opening by Luigi Paganetto followed the speeches by Adriano Giannola, President of SVIMEZ, Vincenzo Scotti, Link University and Aldo Ravazzi, Senior Economist – Italian Ministry of Environment

 

13 Jan2017

Tor Vergata Group of 20 – January 13, 2017

The meeting of Group of 20 “Revitalizing Anaemic Europe” took place on January 13rd, 2017 and the topic was:

“State and Economy: Mediaset, Mps and surroundings”

To the opening by Luigi Paganetto followed the speeches by Franco Bassanini, Marcello Messori and Massimo Mucchetti.

Download here the materials

Marcello Messori

Massimo Mucchetti

 
 
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