Tuesday, June 25, 2019
 

Monthly GDP: August 2018

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GDP growth remains modest albeit the recovery of industrial production in August

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Industrial production increased by 1.7% m/m in August, coming in significantly above consensus forecats, offsetting the decline of 1.6% m/m in July (revised upward from the -1.8% of the previous estimate). The expansion was broadbased to all sectors, with instrumental goods printing the strongest rebound up to +3.6% m/m. Against the backdrop of softening business confidence (manufacturing PMIs entered modest contractionary territory in August-September), GDP growth is expected to remain on a moderate expansionary quarterly pace of 0.2% q/q in Q3 and Q4 this year. Consistent with this scenario, the revised estimate of monthly real GDP growth points to an expansion of 0.07% m/m in August (+1,0% yoy).

Data and comment

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Methodological note

 

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