Friday, June 5, 2020

Monthly GDP: November 2018


Risks of a second consecutive quarterly GDP contraction in 4Q


Economic indicators signal risks of a second consecutive quarterly GDP contraction in Q4, due to a much weaker than expected industrial production in November and to a widespread worsening of the business climate.
The revised estimate of monthly real GDP edges down to 0.03% m/m in November, implying a y-o-y expansion not exceeding 0.4%.
Industrial production dropped by a surprising -1.6% m/m in November, following two months of slight contraction (-0.1% m/m). The breakdown shows broadbased weakness, with the sole exception of energy production: intermediate goods posted the highest decline (-2.4% m/m) followed by investment goods (-1.7% m/m), durable consumer goods (-1.5% m/m) and nondurable consumer goods (-0.7% m/m), while energy expanded by 1.0% m/m.
Business surveys signal subdued economic activity also in December: composite PMI reflects weakness in manifacturing output, underpinned only by a modest recovery in the service sector (+0.2 at 50.5) back into expansionary territory since November.

Data and comment

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Methodological note


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