Saturday, April 4, 2020

Monthly GDP: May 2019


GDP growth is expected almost flat in 2Q 2019


The revised estimate for monthly GDP growth traces a weaker momentum as the April figure is slightly lower than the previous estimate and the new projection for May points to a further reduction of 0.02% m/m (-0.12% y/y). The revision is mainly driven by the final GDP print for 1Q19, which came in one-tenth of a percentage point lower than the flash one (0.12% q/q form 0.23% q/q), and by the worse than expected industrial production figure for April (-0.7% m/m). As for the manifacturing sector, weakness is widespread to all sub-sectors except energy, with instrumental goods (-2,5% m/m) and durable goods (-1.8% m/m) recording the most marked drop. Soft indicators point to a modest growth also in May, both for manifacturing and service sector, the latter being a bit more resilient according to sectoral PMIs and Istat surveys. In both sectors firms ascribe the dip in output mainly to a reduction in new orders, expecially the foreing ones.

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