Monday, September 24, 2018
 

27 Feb2018

Tor Vergata Group of 20 – February 27, 2018

The meeting of Group of 20 “Revitalizing Anaemic Europe” took place on February 27th in Rome at the SNA – National School of Administration, and the topics were:

“The proposals on Eurozone reforms and the document by the
French and German economists”

To the opening by Luigi Paganetto, President of Tor Vergata University Economics Foundation, are followed the speeches by Paolo Guerrieri, Sapienza University of Rome and College of Europe, Bruges; Marcello Minenna, London Graduate School of Mathematical Finance; Rocco Cangelosi, Italian Council of State; Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Société Génerale and Giuseppe Pennisi, CNEL

 

Monthly GDP: December 2017

febbraio 16th, 2018 by admin in Italian Economics

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Economic activity picked up at year-end

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According to the preliminary unadjusted estimate based on quarterly data, Italy’s real GDP rose by 1.4% in 2017 with respect to the previous year, the highest print since 2010. In the last quarter of 2017, the economy expanded by 0.3% q/q, a bit softer than previous quarter’s and market expectations. The breakdown of GDP growth will only be released on 2nd March, but according to the qualitative decomposition provided by ISTAT, the strongest drivers were domestic and external demand. The new estimate of monthly GDP foresees an increase of 0.22% m/m in December and the annual growth rate is estimated at 1.47% y/y, from 1.56% y/y in November. The Italian economy seems poised to accelerate further this year: industrial production expanded in December by posting strong growth of 1.6% m/m, following an increase in November of 0.2% m/m and coming significantly above consensus. Buoyant January business surveys suggest strong growth momentum is likely to continue in 1Q18: the composite PMIs increased to 59.0 (+2.5 points), the strongest reading since summer 2006..

Data and comment

Previous releases
Methodological note

 

13 Feb2018

Tor Vergata Group of 20 – February 13, 2018

The meeting of Group of 20 “Revitalizing Anaemic Europe” took place on February 13th in Rome at the SNA – National School of Administration, and the topics were:

Taxation and the relationship between State and Citizens

To the opening by Luigi Paganetto, President of Tor Vergata University Economics Foundation, are followed the speeches by Nicola Rossi, Bruno Leoni Institute and University of Rome “Tor Vergata”; Franco Gallo, Emeritus Judge of the Italian Constitutional Court; Salvatore Biasco, Sapienza University of Rome; and Antonio Di Majo, University of “Roma Tre”

 

31 Jan2018

Tor Vergata Group of 20 – January 31, 2018

The meeting of Group of 20 “Revitalizing Anaemic Europe” took place on January 31th in Rome at the SNA – National School of Administration, and the topics were:

European Security and Defence policies” (1st part)

To the opening by Luigi Paganetto, President of Tor Vergata University Economics Foundation, are followed the reports by Ambassadors Maurizio Melani, Link Campus University and Alessandro Minuto Rizzo, President of Nato Defense College Foundation.

The european Social Pillar” (2nd part)

The following reports have been issued: Enrico Giovannini, ASviS and University of Rome “Tor Vergata”; Edoardo Reviglio, Chief Economist and Head of Research and Strategy and of International Relations at Cassa depositi e prestiti“; Paolo Reboani, Italian Ministry of Labour and Social Policy.

 

Monthly GDP: November 2017

gennaio 17th, 2018 by admin in Italian Economics

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Industrial production unespectedly soft, but Italy’s growth outlook remains solid

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Industrial production came in below expectations in November, remaining unchanged from the previous month after the expansion of 0.6% m/m printed in October. The positive contribution of the energy sector(+4.0% m/m) and intermediate goods (+0.1% m/m), infact, was offset by some moderation in consumption and instrumental goods (-0.7% and -0.3% m/m respectively). The softening of the economic activity associates with a modest slowdown of the short-term indicators, with the PMI index and business confidence that edged lower in December, albeit remaining comfortably within the expansion territory.
Consistent with this scenario, monthly real GDP is estimated to grow by 0.07% m/m and 1.56% yoy in November, suggesting that conditions remain positively oriented but that growth is unlikely to strengthen from 0.4% q/q recorded in 3Q17.

Data and comment

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Methodological note

 

11 Jan2018

Tor Vergata Group of 20 – January 11, 2018

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The meeting of Group of 20 “Revitalizing Anaemic Europe” took place on January 11th in Rome at the SNA – National School of Administration, and the topics were: “Welfare and Health“.
To the opening by Stefano Battini, President of SNA and Luigi Paganetto, President of Tor Vergata University Economics Foundation, are followed the speeches by Federico Spandonaro, President of CREA Sanità and Andrea Urbani, Director-General of health planning – Italian Ministry of Health.

 

Monthly GDP: October 2017

dicembre 21st, 2017 by admin in Italian Economics

The Italian economy stays the course as the year comes to a close

After GDP growth for 3Q17 was revised marginally down to +0.4% qoq (from the first estimate of +0.5%), as it appeared the service sector might have grown less than expected. GDP was still up a robust 1.7% yoy, driven by exports (+5.3% yoy, which shows that Italian companies are now gaining market share around the world) and investment (+4.6% yoy). Industrial production returned to expansion at healthy pace in October (+0,5% m/m), after weakness seen in September: the increase was broad based across sectors, with the positive contribution of energy component (+1,7% m/m), intermediate goods (+1,0% m/m) and capital goods (+0,7% m/m). Therefore, the updated GDP estimate for October remains well oriented (+0,15% m/m) pointing to a robust growth of +1,84% on a year on year base, also in line with the most recent surveys confirming that the growth momentum should be sustained in Q4 too. November composite PMI, infact, surprised to the upside, rising to 56.0 (+2.0 points), a four month high, with the services sector that drove most of the rise, increasing to 54.7 (+2.6 points).

Data and comment

Previous releases
Methodological note

 

7 Dec2017

Nation, Regions and Autonomies strengthened.
How to ensure Solidarity and Development

Group of 20 – Revitalizing Anaemic Europe


Workshop

Nation, Regions and Autonomies strengthened.
How to ensure Solidarity and Development


The workshop of Group of 20 “Revitalizing Anaemic Europe” took place on December 7th in Rome at the SNA – National School of Administration.
To the opening by Stefano Battini, President of SNA and Luigi Paganetto, President of Tor Vergata University Economics Foundation, are followed the speeches by Patrizio Bianchi, Emilia Romagna Region; Franco Gallo, Emeritus judge of the Italian Constitutional Court; Adriano Giannola, President of SVIMEZ; Mariano Bella, Confcommercio; Maria Ludovica Agrò, Director-General of Italian Agency for Territorial Cohesion; Vincenzo Scotti, Link Campus University; Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”.


 

Monthly GDP: September 2017

novembre 28th, 2017 by admin in Italian Economics

GDP growth accelerates in Q3

After rising by 0,3% q/q in Q2, Istat preliminary estimate on GDP growth in Q3 shows an expansion of 0.5% q/q (+1.8% y/y), in line with consensus expectations. Together with 1Q17 it is the strongest quarterly reading since 4Q10 (1Q11 for the yoy change), i.e. since the government debt crisis. Growth is expected to remain resilient in the coming quarters as well, thanks to the positive trend of industrial activity and the encouraging signals coming from surveys and production indicators. Although industrial production contracted slightly more than consensus expectation in September (-1,3% m/m), it was consistent with a quarterly acceleration of 1.5% in Q3 (+1.2% in Q2). The drop was mainly due to the energy component (-6.3% m/m), capital goods (-2.0% m/m) and intermediate consumption (-3.0% m/m), all erasing their last month’s rise. Economic indicators in October point to the expansion of the industrial activity also in next months: PMI index jumped to a six-and-a-half-year high to 57.8 (+1.5 point). The rise was driven by a significant increase in new orders, supported by strong external demand, and in particular solid orders from Germany. Overall, the new GDP estimate for September points at flat m/m profile (+0.07% m/m) with year on year growth of +1.79%

Data and comment

Previous releases
Methodological note

 

23 Nov2017

Tor Vergata Group of 20 – November 2017

The meeting of Group of 20 “Revitalizing Anaemic Europe” took place on November 23rd in Rome at the SNA – National School of Administration, and the topics were:

The 2018 Budget law, debt and issues of the Italian economy

To the opening by the President Luigi Paganetto are followed the speeches by Riccardo Barbieri H., Chief Economist Department of the Treasury – Italian Economy and Finance Ministry; Gloria Bartoli, LUISS “Guido Carli” University; Gimpaolo Galli, Italian Congress of Deputies; Giuseppe Pennisi, CNEL; Giuseppe Pisauro, President of The Italian Parliamentary Budget Office.

It’s possible to download the slides:

undefined Manovra 2018, Debito e nodi dell’economia Italiana (italian version)
Luigi Paganetto – President of Tor Vergata University Economics Foundation

undefined Italy’s macroeconomic outlook
Riccardo Barbieri H. – Italian Department of the Treasury – MEF

 
 
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